China Current events International affairs US

When will China invade Taiwan? How about January 18, 2021?

A former US admiral 1 and a former acting CIA director 2 have just presented an imaginary scenario in which Mainland China retakes Taiwan in the early days of 2021.

Short version? Under pressure at home due to the trade war with the US and Covid-19 and sensing that the US is maximally distracted by its own domestic troubles, Chinese leader Xi Jin Ping plans and executes an invasion of Taiwan on January 18, 2021, the day of the next US presidential inauguration. The US and the rest of the world are caught off guard, and by the time they are in a position to respond militarily, Taiwan has already capitulated.

You can read a summary in “China Can Capture Taiwan in Three Days, Say Former US Officials,” printed in Forbes, or you can read the essay itself, “The War That Never Was,” in Proceedings magazine of the US Naval Institute.

  1. Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired)
  2. Michael J. Morell